More Substantial Rains for the South Could Bring Flooding

Rains have already soaked much of Northeast Texas and Arkansas and it now spreading into the MidSouth and heading towards the TN Valley as of 3 PM Tuesday. Over the past week, it has been cloudy and dreary with periods of rain, some of which has been heavy for much of the South from Northeast Texas-Northern Georgia. This area has seen an estimated 2"-6" of rainfall during this time with some isolated higher amounts. This has saturated the ground and unfortunately, more rain, some heavy, is on the way.

A nearly stationary boundary, mixing with waves of energy and a moisture rich airmass is providing the scenario for more rain through this evening and tonight from the MidSouth through the Tennessee Valley and into Northern Georgia. Rain will likely linger through much of Wednesday, too, from northeast Mississippi through northern Alabama and into northern Georgia. Some of this rain can be very heavy and mixing that with already saturated ground means the potential for flooding. As a result, the National Weather Service has issued Flash Flood/Flood Watches from Northeast Texas to South Carolina. There are also several Flash Flood Warnings from northeast Texas across much of southern Arkansas into western Mississippi.

So how much rain is expected. Through Wednesday evening, 1-3" of rainfall is likely, with some isolated amounts up to 5" from southeast Arkansas into northern Georgia. A brief break in the rain is possible late Wednesday and early Thursday before yet another round of heavy rains are possible.

Lastly, for those of you in Missouri, you may see the season's first flakes of snow; however, no accumulation, early Saturday morning. I will keep an eye on this possibility and provide more details later as we get closer to the event.