A powerful early winter season storm is spinning up across the 4-corners with a surface low across southeast Colorado. The surface system will gradually lift north-northeastward through Saturday while the upper level support will be slowly track eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. What does this mean?
First, as the surface low moves through the Plains, some heavy rains will be possible from Texas to the eastern Dakotas. Some of the heavy rains from southeastern Kansas into Texas will be associated with some very strong storms. Some of these will be severe in nature. The threat will exist for much of Thursday and gradually shift eastward into the Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk issued for these areas with a large 30% likelihood hatched area within the Slight Risk. I would not be surprised to see a Moderate Risk area included before it is said and done, probably from northeast Texas into Louisiana. What risks are included with this severe weather? Well, this scenario will likely produce storms that can produce not only large hail and strong gusty winds but also a few tornadoes.
Further to the north from Colorado to the western Dakotas, some very heavy snow is likely. Already, heavy snow is falling across much of Colorado. Snow is not only occurring across the high country but also along the I-25 corridor from Colorado Springs through Denver, Ft. Collins and into Wyoming. This will be shifting gradually northeastward through Thursday and Friday. Winter Storm warnings are in effect for most of Colorado, southeast Wyoming, extreme northern New Mexico, the panhandle of Nebraska, and western South Dakota, including Rapid City and the Black Hills. Winter Storm Watches are in effect into North Dakota. How much snow may fall? Many within the Winter Storm Warning affected area will see 8" to 16".
By Friday, the Severe Weather threat will begin shifting eastward towards the Mid-South. New guidance is suggesting the system may really slow down on the south end and it may take until Saturday for the storms to propagate into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
To help be safe from the possible severe weather threat, I strongly encourage you to consider signing up for Weather Call. Weather Call costs just $6.95 per year and is the most advanced severe weather alerting system available at this time. It will contact you by up to three methods, Phone, Email, Text Message, to provide you with any severe t-storm or tornado warnings issued for your designated location.
How does Weather Call differ from NOAA Weather Radio?
When you receive a warning via NOAA Weather Radio it is for an entire county. With Weather Call, you register a location to be notified for such as your home, office or school. Whenever a warning is issued that is specifically for your location, you will be notified. It is possible to alert this way now since the National Weather Service changed their warning notifications from county based to storm cell based. You can learn more about Weather Call and signup by clicking here.