First, we have tropical depression 2 which on satellite appears it could already be a tropical storm. Here is a look at some of that satellite analysis estimates on the strength of the current depression. A couple of the satellites are estimating that winds could be as strong as 55 knots and for a system to become a tropical storm it needs winds of 35 knots.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory as of 11 AM AST indicated their belief of the system having winds of about 30 knots. It is likely that it is somewhere in between around 40 to 45 knots.
The system is still battling dry air on its WNW side but appears much better organized today then compared to yesterday. Below is the water vapor image and the oranges and reds indicate the dry air west of the system shown in green due to the high moisture content wthin the system.
In addition to the dry air on its west side it is encountering some wind shear, too. These two items put together will likely keep the system from intensifying too quickly and in general, I believe the system will like be a tropical storm with winds between 45 and 60 knots for the next couple of days. For the latest updates on this system please look to the right and refer to the "Doppler Dale's Weather News" RSS section.
The official track of the system from NHC matches well with the overall consensus of the modeling data. They all indicate a westward movement of the system for the next couple of days then more of a turn to the West-Northwest.
The next area to continue to watch is a tropical wave west of the Leeward Islands. Today's satellite doesn't look like much but this system will continue to track to the west through the end of the week and will likely end up in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. When it arrives into the Gulf it will arrive into a favorable environment for development and it could develop into a tropical system that could affect the Gulf Coast of the U.S. early next week.
Lastly, the "BIG TICKET" item. A second wave moved off the west coast of Africa, yesterday. It is following behind tropical depression 2. This system will likely be the main item of concern over the next two weeks. It may form into a tropical storm within the next two days and then into a hurricane by the end of the weekend. Some model guidance indicates this system could become a very strong storm as it moves to the west towards the Caribbean. It is too far out to say where exactly it may track but please refer to yesterday's post, "Finally Some Tropical Fun in the Atlantic," to learn the climatologically tracks for storms that form during this time of year in this region. Based on climatology and current modeling data, if I lived along the eastern U.S. coast I would monitor this storm closely.
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