T. S. Danny Likely to Brush Outerbanks & New England & Could “Erika” Be Arriving Soon

As of 10 AM CT, T.S. Danny was located about 320 miles northeast of Nassau and had max winds near 60 mph. Danny is not moving consistently to the northwest but that is the overall general direction of movement at about 13 mph. A general northwest motion is likely for the next 24-hours and then a more northerly turn is anticipated with an increase in forward speed. Even though the official intensity was increased to near 60 mph earlier this morning, looking at satellite imagery and data would not support this. In addition, Danny still looks disorganized with the center of circulation outrunning the main convection which is found to the east-northeast. Modeling data still tries to organize the system better and some even try to bring Danny to hurricane strength and so does the official NHC forecast. I think it is possible that Danny may briefly become a very minimal hurricane on Saturday as it approaches southeastern New England but I am not completely convinced. Either way, for the second weekend in a row, heavy surf is likely from the Southeastern U.S. Coast to New England. The worst will likely occur from Long Island to Maine and the strongest winds to affect the U.S. will likely occur late Saturday across southeastern Massachusetts.

I will continue to monitor Danny and the aircraft recon reports this afternoon and evening and if you would like to stay up-to-date with the very latest simply follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx

Now, Danny is not the only concern in the Atlantic. Another healthy tropical wave has moved off the west coast of Africa over the past couple of days and is now located about 350 mi SSW of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has a high chance of becoming "Erika" by being classified as a tropical storm in the next 1 to 2 days. The modeling data then allow the system to consistently, gradually strengthen and the system may become a hurricane by the end of the week. By the middle of next week, the system, likely a hurricane, will be approaching the northern Leeward Islands. Based on the overall weather pattern and trend, it will likely track in similar manner as to that of Bill and Danny and be of concern for the East Coast during the Labor Day weekend. Could very likely be three weekends in a row of high surf and dangerous waters for many.

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