Next Named System, “Danny” Likely

I have been watching a wave move towards and now past the Leeward Islands since late last week and now it is showing signs of better organization as it moves by to the north of Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is sending a recon flight to investigate the system further, this afternoon. I anticipate that after they have investigate the system the NHC will at minimum categorize the system as a Tropical Depression and may even be able to name the system as the next Atlantic named tropical cyclone, Danny.

The system will be moving into a favorable environment for further development and enhancement over the next 24-hours, for sure. This means that it very likely that it will be a tropical storm as it moves through the eastern Bahamas on a Northwestward course. Additional development is then still possible through the end of the week and the system may near hurricane strength by late Friday. At that time, the system would likely be bearing down on the Carolina Outerbanks. Here is a look at the tropical models' forecast intensity plots.

Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic click here.

Many of the tropical models tend to track the system northwest and then north and east and keep it away from the U.S. coast but the short term and medium range models most often used for general forecasting disagree. These include the American NAM & GFS models, European Model and the Canadian Model. They all bring the system into the Outerbanks by Friday evening and then track the system northward through the Mid-Atlantic and into New England through Saturday. Here is a look at a composite, spaghetti plot, of the hurricane models and then the short/medium range models in the below slide show.

Spaghetti Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic click here. Forecast models courtesy of the Penn State E-Wall Site.

Stay up-to-date on the latest with this system by following me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/dopplerdalewx.