Finally Some Tropical Fun in the Atlantic

The Atlantic Tropical region is starting to heat up with activity and we will likely see our first tropical named system of the year in the Atlantic Basin, possibly as early as later tonight. Tropical Depression 2 is located near 31W Longitude and 15 N Latitude or about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, this Tuesday afternoon. TD is moving to the west around 13 MPH and the general track over the next day or two will be to the West to West-Northwest. As of 10 AM, maximum sustained winds were around 30 MPH and the estimated pressure was 29.71" or 1006 MB. Here is the latest satellite image:

Now let's take a look at the water vapor image as of 2:30 PM CT

Not the dry air indicated but the reddish hue to the west of the storm. The TD has to move into this dry air and I strongly feel this will keep the system from strengthening much over the next day or two. In addition, it will not be crossing waters that are that warm and are marginal. Even with these obstacles, the current track and forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the tropical depression strengthening into the season's first tropical storm Wednesday morning. If this would happen it would become Tropical Storm "Ana".

Overall, I agree with the general forecast track and so does the modeling data. Here is an image showing Tuesday morning's model runs in a spaghetti plot.

Now a few of the models do agree with the NHC thought of intensification into a tropical storm on Wednesday morning. While the majority tend to hold off the intensification into a tropical storm until at least Thursday. One even keeps the system only a depression. Now know matter what does occur the next couple of days with this system the only interests that will have to be concerned will be shipping interests. I also don't believe this storm will become a hurricane during at least the next 5-days.

Now this is not the only system to watch in the Atlantic. One system is not even mentioned on the tropical weather outlook and that is because it is not in the Atlantic, currently. What I am watching is the storm system that will be entering into the Mid-South tonight and slowly meander into the Southeast through the end of the week. An area of low pressure may become organized off the Southeastern Coast this weekend and if it would could interact with the very warm Gulf Stream allowing for the potential of development into a tropical system. This is something that should be monitored by those having interests along the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Another area of interest is a tropical wave near 50 West latitude. This system will continue to track to the west over the next few days and it may develop into a tropical storm late this week. It then would like turn more northwesterly into the Gulf of Mexico and may become a concern for interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Yet another area to watch and this is another wave of energy moving off the west coast of Africa and is following TD 2. Now as I was mentioning earlier with TD 2 it has a bunch of dry air in front of it to work against. The wave following TD 2 will have a moister atmosphere to work with due to TD 2 leaving behind a bit of a wake of moisture. Some modeling data indicates that this could become a long track system that moves across the Atlantic. Question would then be where would it go? Too early to say but it could affect anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast or plain just stay out to sea. Climatologically speaking, it would likely track initially west and then northwest towards Bermuda and then potentially the East Coast of the United States in 7 to 10 days or so.

So, even though it has been very quiet tropically, things appear to be ramping up. At least for the next couple of weeks.