Disturbances in Caribbean May Be of Concern for East Coast

There are two waves moving across the Caribbean with one being in the Bahamas and the second moving through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

The trough moving through the Caribbean is not well organized and is just delivering scattered showers and storms to the Bahamas and parts of southeast Florida. An upper level system swinging through the Lower Mississippi Valley will help to reinforce an upper level trough across the Eastern U.S. It may also help to enhance this feature in the Bahamas as additional energy swings in from the west on Wednesday. A more organized low may develop off the Carolinas by Thursday morning and then move off to the northeast through the remainder of the week. This system may become a tropical cyclone but if it does it should not affect the U.S. Atlantic coast directly.

The second wave moving through Puerto Rico and tracking to the east will continue to bring rain and thunderstorms to the region.The model consensus is to track this disturbance to the west-northwest across Hispaniola over the next 24-hours. Then there are some differences amongst them but overall the agreement is to track it into the Bahamas and then curve it to the north-northeast this weekend.

In the short term, conditions in the upper levels are not very favorable for significant development of this system; however, the models are indicating that by Thursday into Friday it may develop into a tropical storm. They then trend with a gradual strengthening of the system to near hurricane strength by Sunday but I am not convinced on this. I will monitor both of these systems and keep informed on the latest.