Tropics Remain Quiet, Cool Week in the Great Lakes/New England

Last week I was discussing the possibility of a tropical wave forming into a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. Well, that is now off the table. The wave that looked well organized late last week has lost all of its definition as it moved across the Yucatan of Mexico this weekend and today just a few scattered showers and t-storms remain. The better organized part of the wave has shunted WSW into Central America and may down the line become a player for the eastern Pacific. Some of the remaining moisture from the wave, though, will be entrained northeastward into Florida where some drenching rains are likely into midweek.

Regarding possible future development this week, looking at the forecast for winds in the 5,000' level across the Caribbean this week it would not be supportive of wave development in this region so the tropics should continue to remain quiet this week.

Other weather player will be a trough over the Great Lakes and New England. This feature will keep it rather cool to end June and start July for these areas and the 4^th will likely be cool and refreshing like a glass of lemonade instead of hot as a firecracker.

Further south, though, just a bit of relief is expected with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the 50s and low 60s. This compares to last week when temperatures were in the mid and upper 90s with dew points in the upper 60s and into the 70s. However, further west across the Plains it will remain hot this week and the heat will likely build back east as we head into the weekend and especially next week. A possible new heat wave, even hotter that the previous one is possible for much of the first two weeks of July.