Hurricane Season Officially Starts Today, What Can We Expect?

Today is the 1^st of June and that means the official start to the 2009 Hurricane Season even though the tropics have already tried to provide the season's first tropical system, twice. First, just a couple of weeks ago an area of low pressure appeared to have had some tropical nature shortly before making landfall along the MS/AL Gulf coast but officially it was never classified a tropical depression or storm. Second, just last week we officially had our first tropical depression ESE of New England. At one point its winds were just 4 MPH short of Tropical Storm strength. So we still wait for the official first named storm of the season.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has released its 2009 Hurricane Outlook and it calls for a near normal Atlantic Hurricane Season. But what does that mean and what are their specifics? On average, the tropical season in the Atlantic includes 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes and 3 of those becoming "Major" hurricanes. The outlook is calling for a 70% chance of 9 to 14 named storms this season with 4 to 7 becoming hurricanes and of those 3 reaching "Major" hurricane status (Category 3, 4 or 5). The NHC's hurricane outlook doesn't provide specifics on potential landfall.

Another popular source for hurricane outlooks is the one provide by Colorado State University professor, Dr. William Gray. His 2009 Outlook also calls for an average Atlantic hurricane season. The outlook forecasts 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 "Major" hurricanes. It also forecast normal chances for U.S. landfall of a "Major" hurricane, 54%.

Now the official "Doppler Dale" Tropical Outlook for the 2009 season. Like the NHC and Dr. Gray I am also foreseeing a near normal tropical season. I am predicting 9 named storms with one storm becoming a "Major" hurricane. I am also forecasting 4 named storms making a U.S. landfall with the highest probability being along the Eastern Gulf of Mexico coast in Florida northward up the Atlantic Coast from Eastern FL to the DELMARVA. Here is the break down per month.

Month	# Named Storms	# Major Hurricanes
June	1	0
July	1	0
August	3	1
September	3	0
October	1	0
November	0	0

Now a bit of clarification on the above monthly forecast. The monthly number is for the number of storms that were initially named during that month. This means a tropical storm named on September 30 and continued through October 10 would be included in September and not October. As a result, some months may see more active named storms that shown above because they were active in multiple months.

Finally, here is the list for this year's tropical storm/hurricane names for the Atlantic.

Ana

Bill

Claudette

Danny

Erika

Fred

Grace

Henri

Ida

Joaquin

Kate

Larry

Mindy

Nicholas

Odette

Peter

Rose

Sam

Teresa

Victor

Wanda