Action returns late week through next week

I hope most of you are enjoying the relatively quiet weather much of the U.S. has been seeing and will continue to see the next couple of days. The pattern will turn much more stormier by late week and continue through next week. The Southeast will see yet more rain to start off 2009. For those of you in Huntsville you have lived through the 5th wettest December on record with an official 11.95" of rain this month. In addition, this is the wettest single month since December 1991. Wet times will also affect those of you in my hometown of St. Louis. Wet was the rule in St. Louis for 2008 as the annual precipitation record was set with 57.96". This easily broke the previous record set in 1982 of 54.97"

Still watching the possibility of a snow event for St. Louis Tue/Wed of next week but specifics are still uncertain so will just keep monitoring things.

Relatively Quiet start to the New Year

First, sorry for not posting in about a week. I had a very busy Christmas week with family and friends and enjoyed the quality time with everyone. It was also very special as this was the first Christmas my twins were able to participate in as last year they were still in the NICU. I hope all you also had a very enjoyable and merry Christmas or Holiday.

A relatively tranquil weather pattern will persist for the end of 2008 and the start of 2009 for most of you south of I-80. The current jetstream pattern is mainly west to east with just a bit of a kink in the west. This pattern will persist through Friday allowing for most of the storminess to move along the northern tier of the country. This is where snow will be confined, too. Also, this pattern allows for milder times for many with temperatures at to a little above normal.



Looking out through next weekend and the start of the first full week of 2009, there are indications things will once again become more active for those of you east of the Rockies and there is even a possible central U.S. storm to watch for 1/5-1/7. I will keep you posted as we get closer on specifics.

St. Louis on Edge on Tuesday

Very cold across much of the nation as Arctic air is well entrenched. Next system will move out of the Rockies into the central Plains on Mon and into the heart of the nation Tue/Wed. For my friends and family in the St. Louis, you are once again on the edge of things. I still feel confident that the cold air will be in place at the surface when precipitation begins on Tuesday morning even though warm air will be returning in the upper levels of the atmosphere. I believe from I-70 northward, the precipitation will initially begin as snow and then mix with and change over to sleet and freezing rain through mid afternoon. Mid to late afternoon the precipitation will change over to rain. South of I-70, precipitation may briefly start as snow but must of the precipitation will begin as sleet than mix with and change over to freezing rain through mid afternoon before changing to rain. Rain will change to snow west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Amounts should be light; however, enough to create slick conditions on some roadways, especially elevated surfaces. In addition it will be enough to create a nuisance on windshields and wipers.

Quick Glance at Christmas Week Storm

A very busy weekend for me so I will keep this brief and unfortunately will not be able to post tomorrow. Arctic blast is heading southward today and will make it into TX by this evening. By Sunday morning, the beginning edge will make its way through the OH Valley and into the Deep South.

After the Arctic air sinks into the eastern 2/3 of the nation, attention turns to a system moving out of the Rockies on Monday. This system will deliver more moisture to the Plains and Midwest and snow is likely especially along and north of I-70. Still questions remain as to how fast the atmospheres warms in advance of the approaching system and where exactly the lines between snow and ice and ice and rain set up. This morning’s one American model rune is not as cold with the Arctic air into Tuesday and has more mixed precipitation further north than does the Canadian and other American models which are colder and keeps snow further south through much of MO/IL. Models tend to bias too warm with Arctic air so I feel it is likely that things will be colder, at least in the lowest levels, big question is how fast the upper levels warm as this is a key factor in determining whether precipitation will be snow, sleet or freezing rain.

As of today, my thoughts are for St. Louis regarding this system will be as follows,

Tuesday Morning:

Snow developing

Tuesday Afternoon

Snow changing to mixed wintery precipitation

Tuesday night

Wintery mix changing to rain around Midnight

Christmas Eve Morning

Rain likely

Christmas Eve afternoon/evening

Rain changing to snow and precipitation tapering off

Many to know Winter is officially here

What a storm! Ice and Snow is covering a large swath of the nation along the I80 corridor from NE into PA and southward to the I70 corridor. Here are some ice and snow accumulations as of 8 AM Friday:

Kansas City, MO (0.2” ice)
Maryville, MO (1” ice)
St. Joseph, MO (0.1” ice)
Chillicothe, MO (0.25” ice)
Kirksville, MO (0.5” ice)
Quincy, IL (0.25” ice)
Peoria, IL (0.5” ice)
Springfield, IL (0.15” ice)
Bloomington, IL (0.4” ice)
Stephenson, IL (8” Snow)
Dubuque, IA (8.8” Snow)
Keokuk, IA (0.75” Ice)
Macomb, IA (0.75” Ice)
Chicago, IL (2” snow)
Argyle, WI (10” snow)
Waukesha, WI (10.2” snow)
Madison, WI (8.8” snow)
Milwaukee, WI (9” snow)

The major storm that delivered this snow and ice is now moving into MI/OH/PA/NY and will continue to move eastward through New England today/tonight.

Attention turns next to an Arctic blast that will usher in the official beginning of winter for many, especially east of the Rockies. Winter officially begins on Sunday, and by then, the Arctic air mass will cover most of the Eastern U.S. making it as far south as the I-10 corridor from TX into the western peninsula of FL. This will be the coldest air mass of the season so far.

Like the Arctic blast that entered the U.S. last weekend, it will also deliver blizzard conditions to many in the northern tier of the country from eastern MT through the Dakotas and MN and into the Great Lakes.


Christmas Outlook

The pattern will still remain active through the Christmas week. With Arctic air in place and a storm system forecast to drop out of the Pacific NW into the Rockies Mon/Tue, MS Valley Tue night/Christmas Eve and into ME by Christmas morning. This system will likely deliver new snow from the Plains into the Great Lakes. Question is how far south will the snow fall? There are still significant differences and in consistencies with the modeling data to put high confidence in the forecast, yet. However, this is a system to monitor as it may bring a white Christmas to many along and north of the Mason Dixie line. Here is this morning’s model depiction of where and how much snow it thinks will be on the ground Christmas morning.

Major Winter Storm this afternoon through Friday

Significant Winter Storm is on the way today through Friday for those along and north of I-70 from KS to MD. The worst conditions will be along the I-80 corridor from NE to PA. A major ice storm is likely from NE KS into NW OH where up to ¾” of ice is possible. Along and just north of I-80 very heavy snowfall is likely where up to 12” of snow is possible. The storm will start getting its act going later this afternoon and continue through tonight and Friday.

For my friends and family in the St. Louis metro area, the precipitation may start out as a brief period of freezing rain, mainly on trees and metal surfaces as temperatures will be hovering near freezing at the onset. However, temperatures will rise overnight so this will allow the precipitation to fall mainly as rain. As a result, for those in St. Louis, I don’t anticipate roadway problems this evening/tonight as roadway temperatures will be too warm. Here is a graphic showing local roadway temperatures from sensors in the pavement. The sensors are operated by MODOT/IDOT and the City of St. Peters and the updating graphic is from KMOV-TV.

Once this storm departs, attention will turn to the next blast of Arctic air that will sink south and east. This air mass will be even colder than the current blast. It will begin to enter MT/ID Friday night, the Plains on Saturday, and by Sunday morning, the front edge of the Arctic air will stretch from western OH southward into northern AL and southwestward to the I-10 corridor in TX. Blizzard conditions will again accompany the arrival of the Arctic air from southern MT eastward to MI.

Christmas Outlook

Many of you I know are hoping for a White Christmas and as I had promised I would provide updates on this possibility. With the snow occurring with today/Friday’s system along and north of the I80 corridor and more Arctic air on the way, I expect this region to have very high potential for a White Christmas due to the already fallen snowfall. Question is what about further south? The above mentioned next Arctic surge will aid in providing the atmosphere needed for more snowfall. The additional ingredient needed will be moisture and this arrives with weather systems. The models have been hinting at a storm system moving out of the Rockies next Tuesday and moving eastward. This system would likely bring the needed moisture with it to help deliver additional snowfall. There are still a lot of questions regarding specifics related to this system but some model indications are showing snow occurring with this system Tuesday through Christmas Day for many along and north of the Mason Dixie line. Here is this morning’s model image showing where it is forecasting snow cover Christmas Eve evening.

Northern Tier US to see more Snow/Ice

Arctic cold continues its hold across much of the nation. Temperatures across much of ND and northern MN remain -15 to -20 and subfreezing temperatures stretch from northern TX into northern AR, along the OH River, across western PA and into New England. This will aid in setting up the next major winter event mainly along and north of I-80 from NE into OH on Thursday and across PA into New England on Friday. This will be in response to another storm system moving out of the Rockies and tracking eastward near a path along I-70 from CO to MD.

This storm system will deliver more significant snow for many in the northern ¼ of the nation from the Plains through the Great Lakes and into New England. There will also be a band of freezing rain/ice mainly along the I-80 corridor from NE into PA. Southward, rain and rain showers will occur. In advance of this system, temperatures will warm, especially across the southern third of the nation.