Pattern to become Colder and More Active in the East

After a quiet and rather mild Holiday week for most of the U.S., the next 7 to 10 days will turn much cold and more active especially for those east of the Rockies. Many locations east of the MS River will see the first snowflakes of the season during the next week, too. It is definitely starting to feel and look like Christmas.

Several storm systems will affect the eastern U.S. the next several days. The first is moving out of the lower MS Valley today and into GA by Sunday morning. This system has already delivered much needed rainfall to much of the Deep South and more rain is likely today; especially from SE LA to the Carolinas. A second system, an upper level one, will move out of CO and into SE KS by this evening. An area of rain mixed with snow will develop across NE KS/NW MO and southern IA.

Sunday morning, the upper level system will have moved into southern IL and snowfall will be likely from eastern MN southeastward to the OH River. Rainfall will spread up along the East Coast and into the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest rainfall (1”-2”) will fall across the FL Panhandle/GA/SC.

By Sunday evening, snow will likely be falling across much of lower MI southward through IN and west through southern WI, IL and eastern MO. 1” snow accumulation line through Sunday evening will stretch from Kirksville, MO-Bloomington, IL-Indianapolis, IN-Toledo, OH and from Grand Rapids, MI to the IL/WI line-Minneapolis, MN-Kirksville, MO. A 3” line will go from Kankakee, IL to Detroit, MI-Lansing, MI-South Bend, IN-Kankakee, IL. Some isolated 6” amounts may occur inside the 3” band.

Rain will continue to spread northward along the eastern seaboard and into southern New England. This will all be due to the above two systems coming together into one well organized one. A new surface low will have developed and be located in western OH by this time with a second coastal low over coastal NC. A deep trough over will be well in place across the East, too, with several upper level waves of energy swinging through.

Monday morning, the surface low will have moved out of western OH and into eastern lower MI with the coastal low rapidly moving NNE into eastern MA. Snowflakes will be falling across much of the East from northern MS/AL northward to the U.P. of MI and west to the MS River. Widespread rain will be occurring across New England and a line of thunderstorms will be exiting south FL.

Tuesday, snow showers will be likely across much of OH and along the western slopes of the Appalachians. A new “Clipper” system will drop out of Canada and into ND/MT/ID/MN. Snow will accompany this system along with another shot of Arctic air. This system will track into the Midwest on Wednesday. The cold front will stretch from the Great Lakes through MO and into the Panhandles of OK/TX. A band of rain and snow will accompany the front as well as the coldest shot of air so far this season.

Two Systems will work together in the East this Weekend

Two storm systems will come together to be the main weather story for this holiday weekend. The first storm system will be moving out of the Gulf coastal region of SE TX today into early Saturday and then head up along the East Coast through Sunday. A second storm system will develop across MO on Saturday and track into the OH Valley on Sunday and eastern Great Lakes on Monday.

These two systems, together, will bring abundant moisture to the eastern half of the U.S. Rainfall will be the main precipitation type; however, some wintry precipitation is possible, mainly along and north of I-70 from eastern MO into PA. Locations in the SE (AL/GA/SC) will see likely rainfall totals of 1/2" to 1".

Snowfall wise, through Monday morning, I anticipate the one inch line running mainly along and north from Springfield, IL-Bloomington, IN-Dayton, OH-Cleveland, OH. A three to four inch max band of snow is likely from Muncie, IN to Detroit, MI.

Southern Storm Late Week

Still watching the weather for late this week from Thanksgiving Day into the upcoming weekend. Feel quite confident that a southern storm system will eject out of the Southern Plains and move across the southern tier of the U.S. Thanksgiving into next weekend. Model runs are swinging around from run to run on exact placement and track of this system and this makes a very big difference on the expectant weather that would occur. As a result, I am still not confident yet to begin pinpointing specifics. I still would lean though, towards a track along the I-40 corridor from OK to TN and then move northeastward from there. A pattern like this would draw warm air in its advance into the MS/TN/OH Valleys and deliver rainfall to these regions, too. Cold air would be drawn down behind the system allowing for some snow potential on the northwest side of the system. At this time, I don't see a major winter event occurring with this system for much of the nation. It may become a threat for New England, though, next weekend. Please check back for more updates regarding this system.

Outlook for Thanksgiving Week, Preliminary Spring 2009 Outlook

The SE will see yet another cold night tonight with even some records falling. The Decemberlike chill will continue through much of the weekend and into the start of next week. The next Canadian Clipper will drop SE on Sun night into Monday and head into PA by Tuesday. It will be the first system in several that will capture moisture and deliver rain/snow. Rain will fall from the Mid-MS Valley east-southeastward. Snow will likely fall along and north of I-70 in OH and PA and into NY and New England (Mon-Tue).

Looking towards the busiest travel day of the year, next Wednesday, it looks like travel across much of the country will be good. The one main concern area will be the eastern Great Lakes into New England due to snow. The likely lake effect regions down wind of Erie and Ontario will likely see bands of heavy snow.

Attention will then turn to a southern "Low" that will eject out of the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains on Thanksgiving Day bringing likely rain to many in the Plains. Question will be, "Will there be snow with this system?" Still not sure on this yet but it is likely for locations in the Rockies as there will be an upslope flow that will occur. On Black Friday, the southern storm system will generally move along I-40 from OK into TN. Rain will fall across the MS Valley and eastward into the TN/OH Valleys. If the low stays far enough south, it may tap into enough remaining cold air, as it passes by, to deliver snow for those of you in the Ozarks east-northeastward into central OH Fri-Sun. Confidence on the specifics of the system still remain low so please check back often for further updates.

Now, a look towards Spring, 2009. Even though, Spring remains a good 3 months away, I know the importance of long rang outlooks for many industries such as agriculture and energy. For this reason, I thought it would be good to give a first look into what Spring 2009 (Mar-Apr-May) may look like. In general, it appears most of the nation will see temperatures that will be near normal (+/- 2 degrees). As of now, I am only forecasting a small area across the Upper Plains to be abnormal by 2 degrees and more and this is in the below normal category. Precipitation wise, below normal conditions are likely to occur across the extreme southwestern U.S. and for the SE, an area of the country still feeling drought and not needing to see more dryness. The Mid-MS and OH Valleys is the one area of the country that I am forecasting above normal precipitation. Below are images helping to depict this forecast.

Lastly, the National Weather Service issued their 2008-09 Winter Outlook yesterday, as well, and I thought I would provide you their forecast graphics for your review. You may read the entire forecast by going to http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081120_winteroutlook.html

2008-09 Winter Outlook Update

Well, as we head now from meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) into meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) I felt this to be a good time to take another look at things and refine, as needed, the winter outlook for the next three months.

Some may wonder how can the earlier forecast for above normal temperatures across much of the Eastern U.S. pan out based on the recent surges of early Arctic air. Overall, this is occurring as originally forecast but with a bit more force. I was anticipating a colder than normal fall for much of the lower OH Valley, lower Mid-MS Valley and TN Valley. This looks good and will compare final verification results when they become available later in December. However, there is one thing I anticipate seeing with the verification results and that is a larger area of below normal for the fall especially south and eastward.

So how does this play into the winter. The pattern we are currently in looks as if it will hold for another few weeks so continual surges of Arctic air into the Eastern U.S. will likely continue into the first part of December and possibly hang on through most of the month. But I expect the pattern to break, by at least January, and the cold will then sink into the Intermountain West and warming will return to the east.

I have shrunk the area of above normal temperatures some and also lowered the deviation temperatures as I don't anticipate as warm of a winter as previously forecast. It will still be warmer compared to normal but not by a lot for most locations. The main warmth, compared to normal, will be across northern New England.

The main jet stream pattern will track storms across the southern tier of the U.S. For this reason, I have increased the area of above normal snowfall across the southern Plains to stretch eastward across much of the U.S. along and north I-20.

Here are some specifics for temperature deviations and snowfall for some locations in the Eastern U.S.

City Dec Jan Feb Snowfall
St. Louis, 1.0 0.4 0.7 17.6"
Huntsville 0.0 -1.0 0.9 4.5"
Chicago 0.0 0.4 0.8 47.0"
D.C. -1.9 -0.3 0.6 24.6"
NY -0.3 -0.4 0.7 34.9"
Boston 0.6 -0.5 1.1 52.5"

I have already begun to look at the preliminary Spring 2009 forecast and I will post this tomorrow or Friday so please check back.

Cold Renforced in the East

Next surge of arctic air will move into the OH/Mid MS Valleys on Thursday and into the East Coast and SE on Friday. This blast will be similar in strength as to the one recently seen. The area that will see the highest deviation from normal will again be across the southeastern U.S. The current blast of arctic air has delivered temperatures that have been 10 to 20 degrees below normal, especially for morning low temperatures. This morning, I had a low temperature of 20 degrees here at my home in the shadow of Monte Sano Mnt in northeastern Huntsville. The official low at Huntsville Int'l Airport was 24 with the record of 21. The normal for this date is 40.


The southeast will have yet another cold morning on Thursday; however, afternoon temperatures will rebound nicely in advance of the approaching cold front. A turn to colder will arrive for Friday and into the weekend.

The arriving surge of arctic air will once again kick the Lake Effect Snow Machine into full gear. The heaviest snow through Saturday will fall across northeastern PA but I anticipate accumulating snow for the snow belts of northeastern OH northeastward through much of western PA and western NY.


Beyond the lake effect snow regions, the front will move pass through will little in the way of precipitation. Precipitation will hold for most until yet another surge of arctic air moves southeastward early next week.


I am still watching things for late next week for a possible winter storm for the Heartland. Models continue to waiver back and forth regarding the possible event but there are indications a southern low may eject out through the central U.S. late next week with a band of snow on the northwest side of the system. More details and specifics will be provided as the possible event approaches.

COOOLD IN THE SE, CHILLY REMAINDER OF EAST

Tonight will be the coldest night so far in the season for the southeastern U.S. This morning, I had a low of 26 in northeastern Huntsville. Tonight, I would not be surprised to see a low temperature around 20 at the house with the official low of about 24 at Huntsville International Airport. 20s will be the rule for many across the SE all the way into northern FL.

This is just one of several continual surges of arctic air that have and will continue to slide across the eastern half of the nation. The next surge will enter into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. In its advance, a brief push of warm air that will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Tuesday will push across much of the Plains and makes its way to the MS river. The quick warm up will make it into the OH/TN Valleys on Thursday before the arctic front slides through by Friday.

Cold Chill Keeps Hold on East

A surge of arctic air continues to spread southeast into the SE allowing coverage across most of the eastern U.S. Little change is expected this week with a few ups in advance of yet another surge of arctic air later in the week. Little in the way of precipitation in association with these surges of arctic air except for lake effect snow in the traditional regions.

Doesn't look like the pattern will change much for Thanksgiving week. In fact, a major snow event may be in the offing for the Heartland around the holiday. I will continue to monitor this and keep you up to date so please check back often.

Cold and St. Louis First Snow

Cold front is through the Mid MS Valley and the cold air will be pushing in tonight. Expect scattered snow showers tonight into Saturday morning and then a few flurries Saturday afternoon. I don't anticipate any snow accumulation for the St. Louis Metro Area. A dusting may occur in the higher country of Reynolds and Iron counties but that should be about it.

Cold, Snow and Wind the Rule for Many

This afternoon, the next cold front with the next blast of arctic air for the Eastern U.S. is stretched from MN to NE. A continued southeastward progression will continue on through the remainder of the week and weekend.

A surface low will develop on along the cold front in eastern IA and track ESE into central IN. At the same time, the system will deepen and become stronger as it moves across IL/IN and then turns to the ENE along the cold front into Canada, Fri/Sat. Rain will accompany the front and the low pressure system as it moves to the ESE.

As the low deepens allowing a fast surge of cold air into the Mid-MS Valley, rain will likely change over to a period of snow across the northeastern quarter of MO and as far south and east primarily along a line from I-44 in MO, I-70 in IL/IN. Friday evening/night.

Some models are indicating the potential for an early season significant snow for central IL into western MI. I am not buying into this thought, though. I do believe it is likely for some accumulating snow to occur across NE IL/SE WI eastward into MI and northern IN/OH on Saturday.

December arrives early...First St. Louis Snow?

A powerful cold front will drop out of Canada on Thursday into the Upper Midwest and continue southeastward progress into the weekend. It will deliver the coldest blast of air to the Eastern U.S. so far this season and will once again start up the lake effect snow machine.

In its advance, widespread rain/rain showers will occur from the Gulf Coast up the Atlantic coast.

Behind it, widespread snow showers/flurries.

This may also be the first system to deliver snow to the St. Louis metro area. It appears a surface low pressure system will develop along the above mentioned cold front in northeastern AR Friday and move into IN by Saturday morning. I anticipate widespread rain across the Mid-MS Valley on Friday with nearly steady to falling temperatures. By late evening, it is possible enough cold air will have arrived into the region to change over remaining moisture into a period of snow. I also anticipate a cold, raw day on Saturday for the Gateway City with scattered flurries. The cold will make its way into Huntsville and the southeast on Saturday and it is even possible for portions of the TN Valley to see steady to slowly falling temperatures on Saturday with windy conditions. A few flurries may even occur for portions of the Appalachians as far south as southeastern TN, Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Reinforcing cold air will follow out of the Upper Midwest late weekend and through the OH Valley/Mid Atlantic Mon/Tue. Overall, the next 7 to 10 days will remain below to much below normal with temperatures more common for December for a large part of the Eastern U.S.

Wet through late week then much colder in the East

Rain has moved through much of the central U.S. but more is on the way. Another low will move northeastward out of TX tomorrow and head into the OH Valley by Friday. It will bring more widespread rain for many along and east of the MS river.

This low will help drag the next surge of cold air across the eastern U.S. Friday/Saturday. With the cold surge, widespread snow showers/flurries will occur.

This shot of cold looks brief and will mainly only last for the weekend before a brief warm up early next week followed by the next shot of cold. Appears this will be the likely pattern into Thanksgiving.

Winter Blast late this week

A wet and active period is expected through much of the remainder of the week from the Plains eastward. The next blast of winter will drop into the Upper Midwest Thu/Fri and sink southeast into next weekend. Widespread snow showers/flurries will accompany this cold along and north of I-70 from Kansas City into MD.

Active and Wet Pattern fo Eastern U.S. This Week

The pattern is definitely turning into an active one for the Plains eastward to the Atlantic coast and southward into the SE. This week a system will move out of the Plains and head to the east through the week with a secondary system developing on Veteran's Day in southeastern TX and moving to the NE. These two systems working together will provide widespread rainfall from the eastern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and southward to the Gulf this week with an area of snow likely from NW KS NE into central IA on the northern fringe of the initial precipitation shield.

For most of this week there will not be any arctic air dropping into the majority of the Eastern U.S. However, as the secondary storm system moves off to the NE and into the OH Valley by late week, it will drag down behind it a cold front with the next shot of arctic air. This air mass will be in place for many in the East next weekend. Looking out past next weekend, the 10-14 day period looks cold for most east of the MS river with the possibility of the season's first widespread snow from the Central U.S. into the OH Valley.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Snow Showers as East Turns Much Colder

Cold front now in the OH/TN Valleys and SE will clear the Atlantic Coast on Saturday. Windy and much colder behind the front from the Midwest to the Atlantic Coast this weekend.

Next storm system to move into the southern Plains early next week and track along the I-40 corridor and then into the OH Valley by mid to late week. Widespread rain will accompany this system Mon-Wed with some snow on the northern edge across northern KS/MO/IL.

Hurricane Paloma will move out of the eastern Gulf and cross over Cuba on Saturday and then head into the southern Bahamas and Turks before heading out to sea. No impact on the U.S. is expected.

Blizzard Winding Down, Eastern Chill this weekend

The Upper Plains/Midwest blizzard will wind down today. The blizzard has delivered record snows for areas of SD. Near the town of Deadwood, SD, nearly 44 inches of snowfall fell and at Rapid City, SD a new record of 9" occurred. Here is a morning shot of Deadwood.

Many roadways across the Dakotas remain closed this morning. For up to date road conditions and closures please go to: http://safetravelusa.com/ .

Snow and show showers will be likely, though, through much of the Upper Midwest into Saturday but only minor accumulations are expected.

An associated cold front related to the low pressure system that created the blizzard will continue to progress eastward today through the OH/TN/Lower MS Valleys. Rain and some thunderstorms will accompany the frontal feature. Ahead of the front, temperatures will remain mild for one more day. Behind it, sharply colder and windy. On Saturday, the front will make it to the Atlantic Coast.

This storm system marks a pattern change that will become much more active and colder for the eastern half of the U.S. A new storm system will drop into the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday/Monday and will skirt through the Lower MS Valley and TN Valley next week. This will deliver widespread rains and keep temperatures chilly. Some snow may accompany this system across the Central Plains, too.

Dakotas Blizzard and end of eastern warmth

Major Plains low pressure system is going to deliver the season's first blizzard to the Dakotas today into Thursday. Snowfall in excess of a foot are likely in spots. Snow will reach into western MN and into southern Canada, too, but on a much lesser scale.

Ahead of the storm, unseasonably warm conditions will persist challenging record high temperatures.

Stretching from the Plains low will be a cold front that will bring severe thunderstorms to the Plains and portions of the Midwest today and tonight.

Turning much colder across the Midwest and OH Valley Thu/Fri, and all through the East and into the SE this weekend.

Major Snow for ND/SD Midweek....Blizzard Conditions Possible

A slow moving storm system over the Rockies will move into the Plains on Tue. In its advance, continued very warm from the Plains to the Atlantic. New record high temperatures are likely.

The Rockies low will move into SE SD by Wednesday morning with a trailing cold front through Western KS into SE NM. A line of thunderstorms will accompany this frontal feature as it continues to track to the east. By Wednesday evening, snow with strong winds will be developing across the Black Hills.

Periods of heavy snow with strong winds will occur then across western SD and western ND through Thursday. Below is the potential snowfall that is likely with this system.

By late in the work week, the cold front will have passed through the MS Valley allowing for a much colder weekend. The colder air will make its way south and east into the SE by Saturday. Scattered snow showers will accompany the storm system, too as it move through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thu-Sat.

Big Changes Coming Mid-Late Week in the East

Warm and above normal conditions will continue for most east of the Rockies through the first half of the week. An approaching storm system will exit the Rockies on Monday and into the Plains on Tue/Wed.This system will deliver temperatures that are more seasonable for many in the East later in the week. Additionally, it is likely this system will deliver the season's first significant widespread snow for many in the Upper Midwest from NE through the Dakotas and into MN and WI, Thu-Sat. Scattered snow showers may also reach as far south as I-70 from St. Louis -Dayton Fri night into Saturday.

In advance of this system, though, temperatures will be well above normal. In some cases as much as 20 to 25 degrees above normal.

Election Day looks as if it will be pleasant for majority of the nation's population.