Weekend...Wet West, Dry and Quite Mild East

An approaching storm system in the Pacific will move on shore on Saturday delivering rain to many in the Pacific NW southward through the northern half of CA. This storm system will slowly head eastward and will make its way into the Rockies by late weekend.

This system will then continue to track to the east next week and will be the next system to deliver more seasonable temperatures to the eastern U.S. late next week.

In general, though, the next 5 to 7 days will see much above normal temperatures with mainly dry conditions for most of the U.S. east of the Rockies as a warm ridge holds keeping the cold air blocked over Canada and the North Pole.

There is a secondary system that is currently in the central U.S. This is an upper level disturbance that will drop to the SE on Saturday and spin up into a stronger system across the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This will help in delivering rain to portions of the SE and FL on Sunday. This disturbance will then turn to the NE and move up along the Atlantic coast next week.

HALLOWEEN....TRICK OR TREAT?

Quiet and mild conditions will prevail for many east of the Rockies to the Atlantic coast for Halloween providing for a nice treat. The only hindrance for the little one's tricking and treating will be breezy conditions across much of the central U.S. form WI southwest into TX. Unfortunately, the entire U.S. will not be quiet and such a treat. The Pacific NW into northern CA will see an approaching storm system deliver clouds and showers providing for a weather trick.

Like Halloween, the weekend looks great for most of the country from the Rockies to the Atlantic. Mild, above normal temperatures and lots of sunshine will be the rule. Precipitation will be kept mainly to the Pacific NW and northern Rockies for this weekend. However, an upper level storm system across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will deliver clouds and showers to portions of FL/GA/AL by late weekend and linger into the beginning of next week.

Next week will see the west coast storm move into the Rockies by Monday and with it it will deliver rain and snow with it to the region. In its advance, mild and relatively quiet weather will continue with windy conditions in the Plains. The storm system will move quiet slowly to the east and will not make it into the center of the nation until Thursday. As a result, many will see pleasant conditions for Election Day next Tuesday. It will finally make it into the East by next weekend. This system will have the opportunity to become the first significant snow of the season for the Upper Midwest late next week.

Warmth spreads east

Above normal warmth is spreading up along the eastern Rockies and oozing eastward into the Plains and Midwest. Today has seen the largest changes occur over MO. The warmth will continue to spread to the east through the remainder of the week. In addition, lots of clear skies and pleasant conditions for most across the eastern 2/3 of the nation.

This will lead to a large portion of the country having a very pleasant Halloween.

The generally quiet and unseasonably warm conditions will continue into the first part of next week. At this time, it appears the next chill wont drop into the eastern U.S. until mid to late next week.

Gradual Warm Up Plains to Coast

Relatively quiet weather with lots of clear skies for most of the nation on Wednesday. The one hiccup will be in New England and locations in the typical snow belt off of Lake Erie in PA/NY/WV with snow showers will occur.

Quiet weather will continue for much of the eastern 2/3 of the nation for the remainder of the week, too. A gradual warm up will be taking place from the Plains eastward to the Atlantic coast at the same time. The warm up has already begun across much of the Plains and Rockies.

1st Nor'Easter of the Year to bring early Snow

The cold air is now well entrenched form most of the eastern U.S. from the MS river to the Atlantic coast. A developing low pressure center is spinning up off the VA coast and will track to the NNE through Tuesday. Rain and Wind will be the rule along the coast and for the major cities along the I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Boston. Heavy snow with wind will occur for much of Upstate NY. Snowfall of up to a foot will be possible.


Into the Plains, a gradual warm up will begin. The warm up will then gradually move eastward into the central U.S. and eventually to the Atlantic coast by week's end. In advance of the warm up, though, a couple of frosty nights will occur delivering the first freeze and widespread frost of the season for the SE.

Cold in place now in east....warmer second half of week

Cold is now through much of the East and that will be the rule through mid week. Progressively warmer from west to east second half of the week.

Cold End to October

System number 1 that has been slowly moving across the Plains and central U.S. is currently spinning over SE IA. Rain extends from the eastern Dakotas through MN into the OH Valley and southeastward into the SE. A cold front lies along the western edge of the precipitation shield. In addition, a secondary low is now into NE FL. All 3 of these weather features will continue to track to the ENE. The main focus on the weather for Saturday will be from the Carolinas northward into New England where wind and rain will be likely. There will also be scattered showers across the Great Lakes.



On Saturday, the strongest cold front of the season will drop into the Upper Midwest. It will move quickly southeastward and by Sunday evening will stretch from Erie-Louisville-Wichita Falls. Cold and breezy conditions will follow the passage of this front. In addition, downwind locations of the Great Lakes will see the lake effect snow machine crank up for the first time this season. By Monday evening, the cold front will have cleared the East Coast of the U.S. This will be a significant blast of cold for this time of year but it will be briefly lasting only a couple of days. By midweek, a warm up will take place across the Plains and begin moving eastward. Milder times are expected for the latter half of next week into the start of November.

Late October to feel like Late November

Currently, the area of low pressure that brought snow to central NE and NW KS is located over NE KS . For the most part, the snow has tapered off for most of these locations and minimal, if any, additional accumulation will occur the rest of this afternoon. The main focus is now turning to the MS/OH/TN Valleys and into the SE. A trailing cold front from the low pressure area, extends from Omaha-St. Louis-Memphis-New Orleans into the Gulf of Mexico. An area of rain extends from Eastern IA along the MS river into LA. There is also a developing area of low pressure over the central Gulf. The cold front and low in KS will continue to progress slowly eastward pushing the rain into the OH/TN Valleys and the SE. As the cold front progresses eastward through the Gulf, too, it will pick up the developing area of low pressure and assist it in moving NE into the Big Bend of FL. This scenario will aid in delivering much needed rainfall to the SE Fri/Sat. The low will track up along the Atlantic Coast and will become stronger. This will deliver gusty wind conditions for many along the coast, especially for those from Philadelphia to Maine.

After this storm system moves into New England, attention will turn to a real blast of chill. A cold front with the coldest air of the season will drop into the Upper Midwest Saturday night. The chill behind this front will deliver a quick blast of late November like cold. By Monday, it will stretch from MI-southern MO-Oklahoma City-Pueblo, CO. At the same time, snow showers will be occurring across much of eastern MN and northern WI/MI with heavier lake effect bands effecting the U.P., the first lake effect of the year. On Tuesday, the cold front will stretch from ME-northern FL-Houston with wide spread snow showers across much of MI/OH/NY/PA/WV. Lake effect snow will also occur then from NE OH into Western NY. The chill will be brief, just a couple of days, before a gradual warm up takes place from the Plains eastward for the second half of next week.


Finally, here is the snowfall totals that occurred with this recent storm across NE/KS.

Blizzard like conditions for NE/KS

A low across SE NE is deepening and is already delivering snowfall for portions of central NE. Winds are also picking up across the region with winds in the range of 25 to 35 MPH. Snow will continue tonight into Thursday across much of central NE southwestward into NW KS. Total maximum snowfall will reach around 1 foot. With the strong gusty winds expected to continue tonight into Thursday, blowing and drifting snow is expected with some white out conditions likely. Blizzard and Winter Storm warnings are already in effect from NW KS northward to the NE/SD line.

In advance of the low, an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms stretches from near Omaha southward to Dallas. This area of precipitation will slowly move eastward as the low and associated cold front drifts eastward. Rain will cover most of the MS Valley on Thursday then into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast on Friday and all along the Atlantic coast on Saturday. Chilly and damp conditions are likely for many along and north of I-20 through the next 5 days as this slow moving low and cold front move east.

Even colder air will sink southward out of Canada into the Eastern U.S. late this weekend into next week. So the chill will continue.

Plains Storm Takes Shape

Currently, the storm that has been mentioned for the past several days for the Plains is now taking shape by delivering severe weather to CO/NE/KS. A low in CO with a trailing cold front will slowly move eastward over the next 2 to 3 days, making its way into the central U.S. by Thursday. Areas that are seeing severe weather today, will likely see the season's first accumulating snowfall. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for portions of NE and KS. At this time I am forecasting a max band of snow of 6"-9" along a line from Imperial-North Platte-O'Neil NE, Wed into Thursday as rain changes over to snowfall. This storm will also bring windy conditions to the Plains, as well. By mid-late week, the storm system will have made its way into the central U.S. At the same time, a disorganized area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan, now, will have organized into an area of low pressure and have moved to the NE across the Gulf into the SE U.S./FL. It will continue to move NNE along the Atlantic coast this weekend merging into the main system and developing into a significant storm for New England

Big Plains Storm to Bring Season's 1st Snow

A low will be developing over SE CO on Tuesday and with some upper level energy sent into it from the NW it will turn into a significant storm system for this week for the Plains eastward into the OH Valley. The low will begin to deepen and intensify Tue night into Wednesday and entrain cold air into it. Rain will spread across the high plains of WY/CO/NE/KS/Dakotas on Tuesday and then Tuesday night into Wednesday will change over to snow from eastern WY into western SD/ND and the panhandle of NE. Western and central NE will see the highest snowfall accumulations, 2"-4".

The low will also spread rain and thunderstorms to the east, eventually all the way to the Atlantic coast. The system will be a slow mover and clouds and rain will be the rule for many in the Heartland for a period of 2 to 3 days with temperatures well below normal.

Also, still watching the likelihood of a low tracking along the cold front that will sweep southward from the above mentioned low, out of the Gulf of Mexico, across FL and up the east coast. This would provide for a windy/rainy/raw weekend for many along the east coast. Late in the weekend as the coastal low passes off into the Canadian Maritimes, snow will be likely for northern New England, too.

Bigger Chill Likely for Heartland Mid-Late Week

The current cold spell from the Plains to the Atlantic coast and southward into the TN Valley has allowed for many areas to see the season's first frost. Frost is likely again tonight for many along and the spine of the Appalachians.


The cooler air will continue to drift further off to the east and lessen its grips the next couple of days. It has already done so across the Plains where temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees warmer on Sunday.


Attention turns now to a system in the Gulf of Alaska. It will send energy across the Rockies Mon/Tue allowing for an area of low pressure to develop across southeastern CO. This low will become cut-off from the main flow and track slowly to the east across the southern Plains and Mid-MS Valley through midweek and then off into the Mid-Atlantic and New England next weekend. This system will deliver the coldest air of the season yet to portions of the Plains through Midwest and into the OH Valley. The high plains of KS/NE/CO/WY may see the season's first snow, too. An interesting twist to the entire scenario could be the tropical remnants of former TD 16 across the Yucatan and Belize. This area is showing some better organization again and may develop further and track off to the NE as we head through this week. At the same time, the low across the central portion of the nation will drag with it a cold front and this front will likely capture or at minimum push along this area of disturbed weather. By midweek, it is likely that this disturbed area will be over the SE and FL. Whether or not is is an organized system is still in question. The area will then track off to the NE and may potentially develop into a coastal low impacting many of the major cities in the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to Boston with rain and windy conditions. In addition, if all the ingredients come together correctly, this coastal low could deliver the season's first accumulating snowfall for northern New England, too.

Then looking out beyond this week, it looks like next will also be chilly for most of the Eastern U.S. as the pattern will hold. In fact, there are indications the upper level trough allowing the cold air to sink southward out of Canada, will become stronger and deeper for the last week of October and there just may be snow on the jack-o-latern's for many along and north of I-70 from CO to OH. We won't jump the gun too much but be prepared for at least a couple of weeks of chilly weather to continue and don't be surprised if snow flakes fall a little earlier than normal from the Plains through the Midwest and into the OH Valley.

Cooling to give way to brief warm up

I'll start with the tropics first. There still remains TS Omar, today. It is now moving into the Central Atlantic and it will continue to move off to the NE at a quick clip and will only be an impact for shipping interests and so this will be the last post I will mention it. In addition to Omar, there are three other areas of disturbed weather in the tropics. the first is the remnants of what use to be Tropical Depression 16. This area continues to bring widespread rain to Honduras, Belize and portions of Mexico. No further organization or development is anticipated through the next several days. A second area of disturbed weather is associated with a tropical wave located about 450 mi SE of the southern Windward Islands. Shower activity has decreased with this area, today, and further development or reorganization is not likely over the next few days. Lastly, there is another tropical wave located about 500 mi SW of the Cape Verde Islands. Like the other areas of disturbed weather, further development is not expected.
Regarding the cool down that has been discussed and taking place across the Central and now Eastern portions of the U.S., the front is that has delivered this cooling is now off the Atlantic Coast, and an area of low pressure is developing off the Carolina coast. This Coastal Low will track off to the NE and will deliver rain and some gusty winds from the Carolinas into the DELMARVA through the first half of Saturday. At the same time, cooling will continue to settle in along the Appalachians while warming will begin across the high Plains. The warming will gradually spread further east through the weekend into the start of next week. A second reinforcing cold front will drop out across the Plains and sweep across the Eastern U.S. for the second half of next week. This storm system may bring the first wet snow flakes to portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This will be monitored over the next several days.