Wet in the East, Maybe snow in the SE?

Central U.S. storm is roaring now with strong gusty winds from OH-AL in the east to NE-NM in the west and all in between. In addition, snow is falling from northeast NM northeastward through the Panhandles of TX/OK, southeast KS, western MO, southeastern IA, northwestern IL, southeastern WI and the upper 2/3 of lower MI. Widespread rain was occurring across much of OH westward into eastern MO and southwestward into northeast TX. Thunderstorms were occurring from southern AR to the TX/LA Gulf coast.

The storm system that is bringing all of this weather to the central U.S. will continue to track eastward through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and south of I-20 in AL/MS/LA. Cities that would be under the severe threat include: Birmingham, AL; Jackson, MS; Mobile, AL; New Orleans, LA; Baton Rouge, LA; and Tupelo, MS.

The wintry precipitation will also shift eastward with the storm system. By 6 PM, Mon, the eastern edge of the snow will stretch from Lubbock, TX-Joplin, MO-Springfield, IL-Valparaiso, IN-Battle Axe, MI. The heaviest precipitation will be falling from near Wichita, KS to Kirksville, MO and from Chicago northeast into MI.

By sunrise Wednesday, there will be three main surface lows: 1. Centered near Quebec, 2. Centered in SE KY 3. Developing in the Gulf S of New Orleans. Moderate to heavy rains will be falling from New England southwestward into SE LA. The heaviest rains, 2”-3”, will fall from SE LA into SE KY and eastward into western GA. Snow will be falling across NE OK/NW AR/SW MO across the Ozarks and continue through much of the day in response the energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Accumulation of 3”-6” of snow will be possible. Snow will also be falling across northern IN/OH in the morning. As cold air filters in during the afternoon, rain will change over to snow across western NY/western PA and eastern OH.

Tomorrow evening, the main focus will turn to the low in the Gulf of Mexico. This low will track to near Mobile Bay by 6 PM, Wednesday; southeastern AL by midnight, Thursday; northern GA by 6 AM Thursday and by 6 PM Thursday be in NE NC/SE VA. This storm system will bring with it more heavy rains to much of the SE and into the Mid-Atlantic. Questions still remain on the amount of cold air that is pulled in behind the system. Some low level cold air may still make it far enough south for some of the precipitation to be a frozen form. Confidence is still low on the specifics but the models are colder today than yesterday so I would not be surprised to see some snow possible across portions of the SE on Thursday. Differences are still wide varying on exact locations within the individual model runs. At this time I believe locations along and 75 miles north of I-20 from Jackson, MS to Birmingham, AL and along and 75 miles north of I-59 from Birmingham, AL to Chattanooga, TN have the highest potential for seeing some accumulating snow with this system on Thursday. I will post more on this around 10 PM CT after seeing the latest model runs to see if better agreement is being indicated.

The low will stay close enough to the coastline that the big cities along the I-95 corridor should mainly see rain Thursday into early Friday. As the low pulls away some snow is possible on the back side Friday afternoon and Friday night along the I-95 corridor. The heavy snow should be kept mainly along the spine of the Appalachians.