Quick Update on Possible SE Winter Event

This will just be brief as I am waiting for this morning's model runs to review but I have had a chance to review the overnight runs. Indications are still being shown that a intense storm system will move out of the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and track NE into GA on Thursday. Additional heavy precipitation is expected from LA into eastern TN and then up into the Mid-Atlantic. It still remains just how much cold air can be brought into the system. A lot of warm air is expected to be pushed in advance of the low in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This should maintain most of the precipitation in the form of rainfall. The system will be very dynamic so it is likely as the main upper level portion of the system pulls through, that dynamical cooling of the atmosphere will occur and rain will change over to snow and this could set up a narrow band of heavy snow. As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch from much of central MS and includes the cities of Jackson, Laurel, Meridian, Hattiesburg and Columbus. My earlier thinking of along and 75 miles north of I-20 from Jackson to Birmingham and along and 75 miles north of I-59 from Birmingham to Chattanooga is the highest area of likelihood for seeing snow with this event. Overall, confidence is low still with this event. Please note, snow is falling as far south as SE TX between Austin and Houston, this morning.