There were will be multiple pieces to this system that will make major impacts on who sees snow, who see icing and who sees significant snowfall of 6" or more. Details...........
Sunday, February 2, 2014
Friday, January 3, 2014
This allows for a surface low to develop along the Red River of TX/OK Saturday evening along the arctic cold front. The low will track northeastward through Arkansas and into northwest Tennessee Saturday night into Sunday morning. At the same time the low will strengthen and the storm will begin to wrap up with increasing northerly winds across much of Missouri/Illinois and intensifying snowfall. The low will then track up along the Ohio River and into southern Ohio by Sunday night.
Due to extreme cold following in behind the storm system and strong dynamics, I expect a robust precipitable water to snow ratio, likely 1:18 or possibly even 1:20 in spots. This will allow enough QPF to turn into a significant snowfall. A wide swath of 1-3" of snow will overspread from eastern Kansas through northern Arkansas and as far south as the Tennessee Valley by Monday morning. In addition, a wide swath of significant snow, 6" or more, will fall from eastern Missouri into the Ohio Valley with 12" or more possible through southern Illinois into Indiana and western Ohio.
Winds will also intensify and begin to blow between 15-25 mph with higher gusts. This will add to the chill reducing windchills well below zero and even more concerning reduce visibilities as snow is blown. This will create near blizzard conditions across much of Missouri and Illinois.
Behind the storm system it turns bitterly cold with sub zero temperatures expected by Monday morning as far south as southern Missouri and Illinois. Highs on Monday, will struggle to reach above zero in St. Louis. Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest night with lows -10 or colder from the Mississippi River into the Ohio Valley.
Thursday, January 2, 2014
Initially, the snow will streak out behind the cold front from southeastern Colorado into Michigan, Saturday. The snow will begin to arrive into the St. Louis metro area between 6 and 10 pm, Saturday evening. Still quite a bit of variance as the the exact track of the upper support and resulting surface wave and the system's speed among the modeling data. The track will greatly determine the area that will receive the heaviest snowfall. At this time, I am leaning along the I-44 corridor through Missouri and the I-70 corridor in Illinois. However, some of the models are further south with the heaviest snow falling from the Ozarks in Missouri to along the Ohio River.
In addition to the snow, as mentioned above, the coldest air in 20 years is possible to follow and any fresh snowpack on the ground will increase the cold. Temperatures on Monday will be below zero for much of the day with a high struggling to the low single digits. Some locations likely won't make it above zero! An even colder night is possible Monday night with subteens possible just north and west of St. Louis.
I don't normally issue snow amount forecasts this far out but due to the hightened interest I will provide a general snow fall potential forecast for now with updates and changes likely to occur over the next couple of days.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
However, that could change early next week just in time for Thanksgiving traveling. A piece of upper level energy is likely to get stuck and cut-off from the main jetstream flow over the the desert southwest and northwest Mexico late this week into the weekend. Then into early next week this energy could merge with a secondary wave dropping southeast out of Canada. This could allow for a Gulf Coast low to develop and that could set up the possibility for either snow or some form of wintry precipitation across portions of Missouri and Illinois Tuesday (11/26)/Wednesday (11/27). This is still more than a week out so ebs and flow in the modeling data on this is expected but the players are showing they want to be on the field and it could set up the first winter weather event of the season.
Posted by The Coupon Centsation at 7:48 PM
Friday, November 8, 2013
The front will slide through the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest making it to the Ohio River prior to evening. Bands of light snow and snow showers will be possible through the Great Lakes and as far south as the I-80 corridor in northern IL/IN/OH. Again, accumulations will be on the light side with the most significant snow falling across western Michigan and northwest Indiana.
As the front continues to push east and south, snow showers will also. Much of New England and the Ohio Valley will likely see the first flakes of snow for this season. Some accumulation is possible in the highest terrain of PA/MD/WV.
The front clears the eastern seaboard and through the Southeast delivering the coldest show of this early winter season. Little if any additional snow is expected. Possibly some lake effect across portions of NY/OH/PA
For the latter part of next week, will have to watch a secondary piece of energy that will whip around the back side of the trough and through the Southeast This could form a coastal low that could try to become an east coast storm system. As of now, appears it will stay off the coast and out to sea but will be a "watcher".
Monday, September 23, 2013
|I-70 at Vail Pass (CoDOT)|
The storm system that brought the first snow to the Rockies is an upper level low and associated surface low and cold front. This system will be tracking eastward and will make it into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. As it tracks eastward, most of the associated moisture will shift southward. This will allow for showers to be drawn northward from the Lower-Mississippi Valley and then shift east through Dixie and the Southeast through Thursday.
Further north, some clouds will accompany the front and low followed by another round of refreshing air filtering in but it won't last long. By late week, a warming trend will set in across the Plains as a deep trough digs into the western U.S. Another round of Rockies snow is possible Thu/Fri. The trough will then remain in place into the weekend before weakening as it lifts northeast early next week.
Friday, September 13, 2013
|Summer 2013 Seasonal SST Anomaly|